
The Business of Dairy
The Business of Dairy podcast will look at aspects of management of dairy businesses from both within the farm gate and outside the farm gate, speaking to farmers and service providers with skills, information and knowledge of value to you and your business. We will bring to you monthly discussions on topics that will grow your knowledge and understanding of management areas that will drive strong farm business performance into the future. This series is brought to you by the NSW DPI Dairy Business Advisory Unit with funding and support from the Hunter Local Land Services.
The Business of Dairy
New Season Milk Price Outlook
We are now entering milk pricing season in the Australian dairy industry, which means there will be plenty of headline news as we head into milk processors announcing prices on the 1st June as required under the mandatory Dairy Code of Conduct.
Joanne Bills, Director of the Global Insights team with Ever.Ag (Freshagenda) outlines their forecast around milk pricing with particular reference to the NSW industry and we also discuss some of the implications of the Trump Administration’s tariff announcements on the Australian dairy industry.
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The Business of Dairy
Episode #48 Transcript – “New Season Milk Price Outlook”
Sheena Carter: Welcome to the Business of Dairy podcast. I'm your host, Sheena Carter. My guest this month is Joanne Bills, who has over 30 years of experience in the dairy industry and will be well known to many of our listeners throughout Australia. Jo is one of the founders of Freshagenda, a business which is involved in food industry analysis with particular expertise in interpreting market and supply chain conditions for the dairy industry. Freshagenda was acquired by an American Agri fintech firm, Ever.Ag, in 2024 to bolster their expertise and services in global dairy markets. And Joanne is now a Director in Ever.Ag's Global Insights team.
In this podcast, we'll be discussing the Ever.Ag outlook for milk prices, particularly for New South Wales for the coming season, looking at some of the factors that are impacting this at a global, domestic and state level. We'll also hear some of Jo's thoughts on how the United States' tariff announcements may impact the Australian dairy industry. Welcome to The Business of Dairy podcast, Jo.
Joanne Bills: Thanks, Sheena. Great to be here.
Sheena Carter: Yeah, it is awesome to have you as a guest this month. And I know it's been a bit of a squeeze to fit it in because you're very busy, so thank you again. Now, I've already provided our listeners with a high-level introduction to you and Freshagenda and Ever.Ag, but would you like to explain a bit more about your background and the new world of Ever.Ag?
Joanne Bills: Yeah, thanks, Sheena. As you said, a few people out there might be familiar with Freshagenda. Steve Spencer and myself founded that company back in 2013, and then at the last quarter of 2023 we sold to a company, an American-based company called Ever.Ag – Ever-dot-Ag – and that's an Agri fintech type of company. So it's a conglomeration of a whole lot of financial services, ag tech and market intelligence businesses like us that have been put together.
So Freshagenda has kind of been absorbed into Ever.Ag's global insights team. But here in Australia, we do a lot of the same things that people who were familiar with Freshagenda would know about, including the Milk Value Portal that we support with the Australian Dairy Products Federation. We put out a lot of our Dairyglobe that people might have been familiar with is going on. So we're kind of doing the same things and a little bit extra within this global context and getting a bit more insight into the US, which is valuable these days.
Sheena Carter: Yeah, very valuable. It's an interesting global space at the moment. And I guess, you know, it's great to know that we still get your insights and intel from an Australian perspective because it is highly valued and good to know that, obviously, that value is appreciated overseas as well. So it's good to have that additional insight from an international perspective and hence having you on the podcast – really good.
Before we launch into the main part of the podcast around our pricing in Australia, and particularly for New South Wales, I think it's worth just contexting at the moment where Australian milk production sits. So, we've seen within Australia a shrinking milk pool, really, which has been driven by a number of things, but this has meant strong competition between processors for milk, which has supported higher milk prices within New South Wales regions, particularly, within most New South Wales regions. And I should just add for context for our listeners that New South Wales is really predominantly a liquid milk market. 60% of our production generally goes into that fresh milk product as opposed to manufacturing product.
But these stronger prices have certainly been really welcome in recent years as we've seen high input costs in dairy businesses. And in my role in Dairy Farm Monitor, New South Wales Dairy Farm Monitor, that positivity that we're seeing is translating to reinvestment back into dairy businesses, which is a great positive for the New South Wales industry, particularly. I should also acknowledge that's very general and sweeping, saying that we've got good conditions at the moment. We have very tough conditions in the far north of the state where farmers are dealing with exceptionally wet conditions and damage as a result of ex-tropical cyclone Alfred.
And likewise, being a big state, down in the southern parts of the state, particularly inland, really struggling with some of those dry conditions that are prevailing across large portions of southern Australia. But I guess, look, in the last, let's say, six months or so, we've seen processors in the south announce step-ups, particularly towards the end of last calendar year and at the beginning of this year. And also some strong pricing signals coming out of New Zealand. So would you be able to talk me through what's been happening here, Jo? What's been driving this uplift in pricing, both from a local perspective and also from an international perspective?
Joanne Bills: Yes, sure, Sheena. I mean, it's very interesting to compare and contrast where we sit today compared to, as you say, we're in the milk pricing season where we were this time last year. Last year, you know, we had quite good conditions and a bit more milk in the system than perhaps a lot of the processors were expecting when they set their prices at the beginning of the 23-24 season. You know, they were still competing quite hard for milk and so we had very strong prices, probably didn't reflect the market as it turned out through the season. So processors found themselves paying a lot of money, particularly in the south, for milk that they didn't necessarily get the return for in the marketplace at that time. And so coming into this current season, the 24-25, a lot of processors had made some tough decisions in terms of streamlining their operations and what they're actually producing to try and maximise the value of their milk production. We had a couple of casualties in processors along the way as well. So a little less demand, a little less competition for milk price, particularly in southern regions, and we saw milk prices significantly lower than they had been the prior season.
We, as you may or may not know, or your listeners may or may not know, we kind of track the spot prices, spot commodity prices, and convert it into a commodity milk value, which is just the value of those traded commodities, traded on the spot market, and we update this weekly. We convert it into the basket of goods that our industry produces and convert it into a value of milk. So at the beginning of this season, that commodity milk value was sitting at $7.34, now it's sitting at over $9, at $9.34. So we've seen a really big lift through the season. A lot of that has come through – for us here in Australia – a reduced Australian dollar. Particularly in the last quarter of 2024, we saw a real hike in the commodity milk value, which was mostly reflecting a weaker dollar, also improving cheese prices.
But what we saw more broadly in the global market, we saw in Europe some constraints on milk supply, which really pushed butter prices up very high, cream and butter prices up very high. And we didn't really get the benefit of that because we're not a big butter and skim producing country. Most of our milk, year in, year out, goes into cheese. And these days, given, you know, the processing footprint we've got, we don't have a lot of flexibility like they do in New Zealand to be able to, you know, chase those high returns. But butter prices were pushed very high. Whole milk powder prices kind of followed them up and New Zealand, you know, as the biggest supplier to the world market, was able to manage their production of whole milk powder to really maximise the returns from that product. And so we've seen there the commodity milk value, I guess, of their product mix and their exposures move very high, like, in New Zealand terms, I think we're measuring them at about $11 a kilogram milk solids at the moment. So, you know, they've been able to follow that commodity market up. In Australia, where we make mostly cheese, which those prices have improved, not quite as much. Half of what we produce goes into the domestic market and a lot of what we produce in cheese is based on long-term supply contracts, three to six to 12 months. A lot of the overseas contracts will be being negotiated in the next few weeks here, so what the prices were now, or are now, has a big impact on how companies are able to open.
So, you know, looking forward to the 25-26 season, we're sitting at a higher commodity milk value now than we were 12 months ago. We've got a little bit tighter milk supply. As you said, you know, New South Wales is basically the only region that's grown this year. We've had much tougher conditions because of the dry in, particularly, Western Victoria and Tasmania, and that's now spread across to Gippsland. So there will be a little bit more competition for milk you would think in those southern regions and obviously in New South Wales that kind of supply dynamic is very strong as well so, you know, as you said earlier, Sheena, getting that fresh milk supply for some of those regions in southeast Queensland, northern New South Wales, is going to be, you know, that's going to be quite a competitive milk pool as well this time around. So yeah, it's quite a different situation that we're facing going into 25-26.
Sheena Carter: Yeah, things never stay the same, and I guess for processors, when they're in Australia, when they're setting that price at the beginning of the season, there's a lot of projecting what may happen, what do we think might happen, which we'll delve into this in a little bit, could be particularly uncertain at the moment with world factors at play. So generally, the positivity in that commodity milk value has come about primarily through higher commodity prices within that basket of goods, and also the drop in the value of the dollar in recent months, particularly that, towards the end of December, there was a big drop in the dollar then. So they're the two main factors?
Joanne Bills: Yeah. And, you know, the biggest moves have been, as I said, in butter, which we don't produce much of here. Cheese has been a bit more steady, but that tends to be what happens with cheese. You don't have the high highs, but you don't tend to get the low lows. So cheese has moved up a little bit with the rest of the complex, but yeah, it probably hasn't responded quite as much as butterfat. On the other hand, if you're producing butterfat, you've also got some skim solids to get rid of and the prices for skim milk powder have been terrible.
So it's kind of swings and slides, but for our product mix, it's mostly cheese. We do export about half of that. Half of that stays in the domestic market. And it might be worth just commenting too, Sheena, on what's happening domestically. I don't think anybody in Australia listening would be unaware that there's been a cost of living crisis in Australia, we hear about a lot, obviously it's election season, so we're hearing about it an awful lot. So high inflation, you know, interest rates didn't come down all last year, so there was a real squeeze on household incomes. There's also alongside that a lot of scrutiny on supermarkets and what they're doing with pricing.
And so, you know, based on the CPI numbers that we get from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, it's been really interesting because for most of the last 12 months we can see that dairy products have been about the only category where the price year on year has actually been lower. And that kind of reflects the fact that when the supermarkets get under pressure, they tend to want to, you know, compete a bit harder on price and they look for staple items that people consume every day. And so that tends to be, this time around, not so much milk, but definitely cheese has been under a lot of pressure, the retail prices for cheese. And we also do have, you know, an open market for imported product. And particularly out of the US, as they get more competitive in terms of cheese production, and obviously New Zealand, who have been part of our domestic market for many, many years. Those imports tend to keep a lid on prices in the domestic market as well because retailers want to have a range of products available. They want to have private label products that are very cheap and accessible and not always featuring dairy fat either, I might say. And then they have a range of products that consumers can choose from. But that's been a really important part of the puzzle, I think, for the last 12 months as well.
Sheena Carter: Yeah, so it's not simple. It's a very complex, very complex space, lots of moving parts, internationally and domestically, but yes, I think you've explained it very well. Thank you, Jo.
If we just duck back to that, our sort of, situation at the moment, we've articulated that the milk pool is slightly lower. And if we look at Dairy Australia's latest, or most recent, milk production report, which is to February this year, February 2025. It's showing year-to-date national production is down by negative 0.1% for the country. So they're forecasting about 8.3 billion litres national production, down from 8.4 the previous year. And you've already mentioned, if we're looking at the month to date for February, New South Wales was the only region that was up slightly in production and all the other states were down, but you've already mentioned, you know, the impact of the drought, the dry conditions in those southern states, Victoria, Tassie and South Australia also, having a big impact on their production. So How will this play into it in terms of pricing that we see from processors, you know, apart from all the other international factors that you've mentioned? And what's your forecasting for milk pricing at this stage?
Joanne Bills: Yeah, the old, dreaded forecast. Look, I think there will be a bit more competition for milk than probably we saw at the beginning of last season. I think processors, as you said, have to balance a whole lot of things. There is a lot of uncertainty in the global economy at the moment, particularly impacting, you know, the US and China. We might talk a little bit more about that. So there's a lot of uncertainty around that. The Australian dollar, at the moment, the US dollar is dropping very quickly. So, you know, I guess the boost we got from having a weak dollar, we might not have that going forward, depending on how things play out. And I guess, you know, based on the system that we have, the mandatory code that operates, processors have to go out with their best guess, and it can only go up. It can't go down. So, you know, at times like these, they would probably like to be conservative about their opening price, but they will also have to be competitive with each other. And, you know, how that flows through to New South Wales, obviously you've got strategic milk supply pools that have to supply a daily market. You've got the costs associated with all-year-round supply in New South Wales, and that's recognised bin farm gate prices that are usually, over the last five years, on average, have been about 22% higher than Victorian prices. So, you know, we're looking at the southern prices around about $9.50 a kilogram milk solids for this coming season. And that would imply, you know, New South Wales prices at about $11.50 to $11.60, you would think, if that relationship holds. There's a little bit more milk around in New South Wales maybe than there was before so that may influence how processors approach different milk pools but you know I think most of them have a fairly pragmatic attitude to making sure they don't make short-term decisions around what's happening right now and that they look to the longer term because I think you know everybody wants to see farmers have the confidence to invest and grow if they possibly can, because that's just getting harder and harder for everyone in Australia and everyone around the world to grow milk.
Sheena Carter: Yeah, and so many factors at play there. That could be another podcast, Jo.
Joanne Bills: It could. Yes.
Sheena Carter: So I guess the summary would be that in the main, it's looking like another positive year for milk pricing within New South Wales. And looking at that, you know, looking at Dairy Farm Monitor results, that would effectively be six years of relatively strong pricing for New South Wales. So, yeah, if there's, well, big if, you know, if there's an easing in input cost pressures, hopefully some strong margins in the coming year ahead.
Joanne Bills: Yeah, and some good weather, continuing good weather for those who have it and better weather for those that haven't.
Sheena Carter: People are certainly going to be aware of the tariff announcements that have been made by the Trump administration. And for Australia, this is sort of a blanket 10% tariff on all our exports to the US, and in terms of, I guess, milk exports or product exported to the US, they aren't a huge market for Australian dairy product, but can you talk us through this situation, Jo? What's it looking like impact-wise for the Australian dairy industry?
Joanne Bills: Yeah, I might, if you don't mind, Sheena, go kind of big and then try and bring it back to the very small, just to give people the context for what the response has been to these tariffs. Because if anyone hasn't been under a rock and has, in fact, unfortunately, like I tend to do too much, been following US politics, they probably would have known that Donald Trump, throughout his campaign, was talking about tariffs. He loves the word. And he was always going to put them in as soon as he could. And so I think a lot of people were thinking in the lead up, you know, he continued to talk about it. The market had priced it in, so it was kind of expected. And I guess financial markets, on balance, thought well, for all the deregulation he’s going to bring and how he’s going to unleash things, it’s better for us than worse.
And then when it came to Liberation Day on the 2nd of April, it emerged that the calculation they used to determine what these reciprocal tariffs would be, and most people's understanding of reciprocal tariff means if you tariff me at this rate, or on this amount of goods, I'm going to tariff you back the same amount or a similar amount. That used to be what reciprocal tariffs meant, but the calculation that the Trump administration used was basically say, okay, how much do we export to you? How much do you export to us? If there's a trade surplus that goes against us, divided by our exports, that's your tariff rate. So it meant for very poor countries who have a very big trade deficit with the US, they got extremely high tariffs. Now, the China one was the headline. I think they started out at 60% tariffs or something like that. I can't even remember.
Sheena Carter: Yeah, it rings a bell.
Joanne Bills: It seems so long ago, wasn't it like 10 days? So they started out quite high, but also countries in Southeast Asia, like Vietnam, I think that started at 46%. Most of the Southeast Asian countries that are, you know, very important to us as well, were being tariffed at rates 30% to 46%. And we know that if you look at the actual applied tariffs for most countries in the world, including those ones, it's around about 1% to 2% is actually what's applied in terms of tariffs. So in no way were they reciprocal. They were much larger than was expected. And so financial markets basically lost their mind. It was a big response that flowed through to the bond market, which is how US government debt is funded, basically. Very important for the US government. And when yields started to spike for the bond market, which means I need more interest – if I'm going to take US debt, I need more interest paid back to me in 10 or 20 years’ time because I don't feel that it's as safe as it used to be. So that has massive implications for the US government.
Sheena Carter: Made a bond a high risk instead of a low risk.
Joanne Bills: Exactly right, higher risk. So then President Trump, as we know, decided he didn't back off completely, but he gave a 90-day reprieve on what he called the reciprocal tariffs, but he just put the base 10% tariff, which his friends and allies, and even Australia, who has a trade surplus with the US, we still got a 10% tariff. That's what everybody's operating now under for 90 days. But because China retaliated, there was a tit-for-tat over the week after the 2nd of April. And now the tariffs that they've imposed on each other are over 100%, which basically will close down, pretty much close down trade between the two countries who are very closely linked. So it's a very messy and shocking way, I guess, to decouple those two economies. One that's very export-focused in China and one that's a consumer of goods from China. So there are lots of things you could say about China being a bad actor and needing to be taught a lesson. Absolutely. But this is a really interesting way to do it. So where we are today is, in terms of the direct global market impacts, the biggest exposure the US has to China in terms of dairy exports is in whey products, dry whey powder, mostly for the feed market, also whey protein concentrates, lactose. So, you know, China is already, and we're hearing it from our US colleagues, Chinese buyers are already cancelling orders and looking to Europe and other places, New Zealand and us if we have the product to fill that gap.
In terms of what happens in the US and how that flows through to us. We aren't a big player in the whey market, obviously. But for the US, they do face a major issue because over the last six to 12 months, we've seen massive, massive investments in cheese capacity in the US. And in fact, the US has grown its milk production to basically fill those factories. And that production is ramping up at the moment. It's coming online. A lot of those factories would have factored in very high whey prices because whey prices have been quite high and particularly for the higher concentrations of whey, they would have all put in that kind of plant to maximise their returns from cheese. What they're finding, or what they're going to find, US cheese demand hasn't been very good domestically. So they've had the same cost of living squeeze that we have. They haven't had quite the amount of eating out of home, which is a big consumer of cheese when you think about pizzas and burgers and all that sort of stuff, particularly when household budgets are under pressure, they tend to kind of trade down to some of those more accessible eating out options or takeaway options. That hasn't really happened for a whole lot of reasons, but at the moment we're seeing consumer confidence absolutely in the toilet because it's dawning on a lot of people that they will be paying more for everything in the next few months.
The Trump administration has had a major program, the DOGE program of, you know, reducing the public service. So there's been a lot of people losing their jobs, a lot of people losing their jobs. And that obviously has flow on effect. So the last reading of consumer sentiment that we saw just earlier this month. There's a lot of people that have expectations that prices will rise and also a lot of people much less certain about their own employment prospects.
So what that means when you've got a whole lot of cheese being produced in the US, potentially less cheese consumed within that domestic market, and that means there'll be more cheese available that will need to be exported. Otherwise, it just goes into stocks.
And so for the US, they will be looking at contestable markets. We don't really know what the tariff situation is going to be with their nearest and dearest neighbours. They're on more than 10% tariffs at the moment. Mexico is a key market for both cheese and skim milk powder for the US. We don't really know what the situation is going to pan out there. Potentially, there's a lot of cheese that will be flowing our way, either into our regional markets or into our domestic market. We are, you know, from time to time, US cheese is very competitive with New Zealand and Australian cheese and it does get imported into food service channels and industrial channels into Australia. So I think that's when it really washes back into our market. It's going to be what happens with US cheese.
And of course, the broader implications of a massive trade war and what that does to the global economy and therefore global demand for dairy products and other commodities. I mean, yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty associated with that because we really don't know. We have a very unpredictable US president, to say the least. So at the end of 90 days, you know, we all know to actually negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement takes years.
Not sure what countries will be able to give the Trump administration that will satisfy them. You know, from Australia's perspective, again, already a trade surplus with the US, already have a free trade agreement. There's reporting in the US press that they want to talk about free trade with Australia and it's sort of like, well, what do we give you next? And obviously, you know, beef was singled out in the Liberation Day announcements that the US administration's unhappy that they import a lot of Australian beef and we don't import any of theirs, I mean, because we're a net exporter of beef. And also my understanding is all they have to do to meet our biosecurity requirements is just certify that all of their animals are born and raised within the US and they haven't been in any countries that are exposed to FMD and they're not able to do that. So that's why. And the fact that they've got 360 million people to feed in their own market and we're like 27 million people on the other side of the world. There's lots of reasons why the US doesn't export beef here. It's really hard, Sheena, to see how this will all be worked out in 90 days.
Sheena Carter: So that is an exceptional overview and you've painted a really good picture, Jo, because it's, yes, you hear all sorts of bits and pieces in the press and headline items and not necessarily getting to the bottom of what's driving it, what does it actually mean in terms of our exports to the US. And tariffs, I guess there's a couple of things. You know, the tariff is one factor, but as you've explained, it's really that movement of product globally that is probably going to be one of the bigger impacts. And countries looking for new markets for existing product, be that the US or whichever country, it might be China, whoever, us. And also, yeah, the beef market. My understanding of the beef market in the US is that their herd numbers are actually quite low at the moment, 70-year lows or something.
Joanne Bills: That's exactly right. So, I mean, that's been part of the challenge for the dairy industry over there, that dairy beef has been so profitable because their beef herd is at a decade-long low, and that's why they've increased imports from Australia because they need it. And so it's a really odd situation that we find ourselves in that, based on Trump's apparent attitude, if there's any kind of deficit in any product, that is bad. And it's just not possible to address that. So where do we go from here is, I guess, the big question.
Sheena Carter: Okay. Well, at least you've given us the background and the understanding. And if people want to pop out from under the rock or pop under the rock, they can sort of follow developments as they transpire, I guess.
Joanne Bills: Absolutely. It's not easy to do that, but hopefully that helps. And I should say, Sheena, like if people want to have a little bit of an overview, a rundown, we do the Milk Value Portal, which is just available online. It's just milkvalueportal.com.au. There will be a quarterly insights publication where we kind of try and wrap this all up and that's available on the portal for free for anyone to download so, you know, I would urge people if they want a bit more background on all this, that that's hopefully a good summary of what's going on.
Sheena Carter: Yep, that's fantastic, Jo, and I will put a link in our show notes for listeners to scroll down and click on that and that'll take them straight to that section on the website so that they can have a look at that report which will be available as this podcast goes to air so yeah likewise I encourage people to read it and if they're interested to see what's transpiring or what your thoughts are. Any other thoughts for farmers when they're considering their milk pricing, well, their options with milk prices this season?
Joanne Bills: Yeah. Look, I think farmers are in a really good position to be able to look at their options for this coming season. I think it's really important to understand the market that you're in, have a good understanding of what some of the drivers are and what might be motivating the processors that are around you and what they're looking for and whether that fits into your system or your aspirations.
And also, you know, again, another plug for the Milk Value Portal, as we get into the next season, if you just want to understand where your milk price fits within a regional context. There is a milk value calculator that you can go and look on and basically put something close to your farm profile in terms of seasonality components, where you are. And as the prices come out from the 1st of June, we'll be updating that with the Australian Dairy Products Federation, just so that you can get that regional perspective of what's happening with farmgate pricing, because it is a complicated, I mean, world affairs are very complicated, but we also do have a very complicated milk pricing system in Australia with lots of different options that farmers have in front of them. So, you know, in terms of providing a little bit more context, that's another resource on the Milk Value Portal. But yeah, I mean, I think farmers should be feeling reasonably positive about the season ahead in terms of milk pricing, but yeah, just get as much understanding as you can of the market that you're operating in would be my advice.
Sheena Carter: Yep, I will also put a link into the calculator in the show notes as well, because yes, that is a good, a great tool. I guess my suggestion to all farmers is always make sure you get a milk income estimate from the processor here. Understand all the drivers. You know, there's two businesses at play here. There's the dairy farmer and the milk processors, and we want to keep everyone in business, otherwise it's not a very good outcome for the farmer or the industry. So, yeah, I'll put a link in for the calculator as well so that people can have a look and for the quarterly insights report as well.
Thanks, Jo. I have really enjoyed our discussion. We could actually talk about a lot of these factors for a lot longer, but it has been an awesome discussion. So thank you very much for your time today and sharing your insights for the New South Wales industry in particular, but also more broadly how all the other factors within the world and domestically impact on our price and good news of a positive outlook. So thank you very much.
Joanne Bills: Thanks so much, Sheena. It's a real pleasure to be here.
Sheena Carter: That's all for today's episode of The Business of Dairy. We hope you enjoyed diving into the fascinating world of dairy farming and industry insights. As we continue to expand and evolve, we greatly appreciate your support. Our show is thriving, attracting new listeners each week, but we believe there's always room to grow and we need your help to make it happen. If you've found value in our discussions, we kindly ask you to take a moment to rate and leave a comment about the podcast. on your preferred platform. Your feedback not only lets us know what you enjoy, but also helps boost our visibility to others who might benefit from our content. I sincerely thank you for being part of our community and we look forward to bringing you more engaging episodes in the future with the continued funding and support of the Hunter Local Land Services. Until next time, stay curious and keep milking those opportunities.